On Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 2006, Mayor C. Ray Nagin proclaimed that the city of New Orleans had been a “chocolate city” before  Hurricane Katrina and it would “be a majority African-American city” after Katrina.

At the time, Nagin was fighting for his political life in a run-off election against a strong challenger, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, a white politician from a Louisiana political dynasty. Nagin prevailed by rallying black voters in the city and drawing 20 percent of the white vote.

Although the election of President Barack Obama showcased white Americans’ willingness to look past race, it is not clear that it will be the same for the Crescent City in the mayoral election in 2010, when Nagin cannot run again because of term limits. For the past three decades New Orleans, a majority black city, has been led by a black mayor. But after Katrina the racial demographics of the city changed dramatically. Next year, the city of New Orleans will see not only a change in the face but also perhaps a change in the race of its mayor.

In 2000, five years before Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans was 67.8 percent African-American. In 2006, the year after Katrina, the population of New Orleans was 46.3 percent black and 43.8 percent white, according to a Louisiana Recovery Authority study. The research also indicated that 60.3 percent of whites returned to the city while only 26.3 percent of blacks did.

“For decades there has been a racial divide in the way politics plays out in New Orleans,” said James Vanderleeuw, a political science professor at Lamar University. “After Katrina the growth of the black population in New Orleans stopped and whites have been able to gain some political power.”

Vanderleeuw said that racism in New Orleans like many other southern towns is deeply entrenched in the roots of the city.

” I think that it is more fear than anything, people generally believe that ‘their own’ will take care of them and in New Orleans there are black and white people,” Vanderleeuw said.

Susan Howell, a former political science professor at the University of New Orleans and co-author of   “Race, Performance and Approval of Mayors,” said that she believes the next election will be similar to the 2006 mayoral election between Nagin and Landrieu.

“I think that there will be a run-off between a white and a black candidate,” Howell said. “People often talk about looking beyond race when they vote, but the numbers show how dramatically polarized voting is along racial lines in New Orleans.”

Howell said that despite both black and white disapproval of Nagin’s leadership, race is still more than likely to play a factor in the mayoral election in 2010. A poll conducted by the University of New Orleans, showed that while only 36 percent of blacks approve of Nagin, an even fewer number of whites-only 5 percent- approve of him.

According to research conducted by Vanderleeuw, in 2006, 90 percent of blacks voted for Nagin, while 80 percent of whites voted for Landrieu.

Howell said, “If there was a strong black candidate and weak white candidate or vice versa it could be that the best candidate wins, but if both candidates are strong then race will more than likely become a factor.”

The powerful racial currents in New Orleans politics became evident recently when city councilwoman Stacey Head, who is white, was accused of racism by Malcolm Suber, of Central City, who led a petition drive to have her removed from office. Elected in 2006, Head represents District B, which includes Gert Town and Central City, a district that had been represented by an African-American since 1987.

She strongly denied the allegations.

“I’ve never been told to go sit in the back of a bus but I understand where people are coming from,” Head said in an interview this week. “I’m doing my best to represent both sides.”

Head said that she isn’t sure what the race of the next mayor will be, but she said that there is no clear African-American front runner.   And she agreed with Howell that the people in the city are frustrated with what many see as the lack of progress that the city has made four years after Katrina.

Suber agreed with Head’s assessment of potential 2010 candidates, saying, “As of today there is not a viable black leader who could possibly become mayor.”

He said he thinks that unless a black candidate can excite blacks, the city will have a white mayor.

“New Orleans needs a black mayor in City Hall but the black mayors we have had have been disappointing and have ignored the poor, but a white won’t do any better,” he said.  ”We need a mayor who is going to resurrect the black population in this city and I believe that the best person for the job is black.”

It was in 1977 that Ernest Morial became the city’s first black mayor. He was succeeded by three others.  Until Katrina, the fact of a black majority convinced most political observers that it was unlikely the city would ever have another white mayor.

In 2002, whites voted overwhelmingly for Nagin, a businessman who had never held public office, when he ran against the city’s African-American chief of police, Richard Pennington. Pennington was endorsed by then Mayor Marc Morial, Ernest’s son. Nagin was a surprise winner, who appealed to white voters because of his vast business experience, conservative leanings and the fact that he did not belong to the Morial political machine, which was embroiled in scandal.

Looking at both the 2002 and 2006 elections, Vanderleeuw said, “They suggest that whites are more likely to vote for the candidate who will give them the most security.”

Vanderleeuw said he believes that trying to predict whether a white candidate will win the 2010 election is crossing into dangerous territory. He said that although many African-Americans haven’t returned to the city since Katrina, they are still the majority and will show up in strong numbers at the polls.

The primary for the mayoral race isn’t until next February  and candidates have until December to qualify to run. State Senator Ed Murray and state representative Austin Bandon, both African-American, have said they are going to run. James Perry, also African-American, the director of the nonprofit Greater New Orleans Fair Housing Action center, already has a website www.jamesperry2010.com, promoting his campaign.

Although Mitch Landrieu ran a close race against Nagin in 2006, he hasn’t thrown his name into the race. Because of his background he would be a frontrunner if he decides to run. His father, Maurice “Moon” Landrieu, the city’s last white mayor, is widely respected among blacks because he was the first mayor to appoint many of them to high-level positions.

Other potential white candidates include multimillionaire businessman John Georges, who ran for governor in 2007 with strong black support and city council vice-president Arnie Fielkow.

Looking at the odds of which way the city will vote in 2010, Vanderleeuw said, “I’d say there is a 50/50 chance that a white person will win the election.”